The Success of Startups & Power Laws

We know from historical records that startups have a high failure rate (i.e. many startups do not produce any profit at all) and that the few that do tend to win big. It’s no surprise that venture capitalists choose to model this relationship by a power law—meaning "a relative change in one quantity results in a proportional …


Bayes’ Theorem and the Law of Total Probability

Bayes' theorem is immensely important, especially for avoiding the classical drug test faux pas that, according to Harvard, six out of eight medical students and 19 out of 25 attending physicians are guilty of. This post is a tool for practitioners like myself that need a quick brush up.